20 Solar-System–Scale “Same-Source Multi-Path” Grazing-the-Sun Sequence for a Common Term

Home ／ Appendix-Prediction and Falsification

This chapter follows the publication template for the falsification program. It uses plain language, avoids equations, and preserves the fixed structure. For general readers: we construct a grazing-the-Sun sequence using same-source multi-path links—one frequency/phase reference transmitted along distinct solar-grazing paths—to test for a frequency-independent common term after removing known geometric, relativistic (including Shapiro), ionospheric/tropospheric, and coronal-plasma dispersive effects.

I. One-Sentence Goal

Around solar conjunction and near-Sun geometries, build a common-term grazing sequence from same-source multi-path observations (the same reference sent along different paths), then test whether a band-insensitive residual remains. Support requires that the residual be independent of carrier and polarization, consistent across links and stations, and monotonic with minimum impact parameter and solar latitude. The result must replicate across channels, epochs, and institutions, and blindly match environment-forward predictions based only on geometry and activity proxies. Otherwise—if plasma, pipelines, ephemerides, or clocks explain the effect—the claim is disfavored.

II. What to Measure

• Common-term residuals (text grades): After standard subtractions, grade two-way light time / phase / group delay / Doppler residuals that are band-insensitive as strong / medium / weak and uplift / depression. Verify same-direction residuals across carriers/polarizations/stations.
• Geometric monotonicity of the sequence: Using dimensionless impact parameter (closest solar approach b/R☉), heliographic latitude/longitude, and elongation, describe up / plateau / down trends and the ordering across ingress–perihelium–egress.
• Non-dispersion across bands and polarizations: Over X/Ka/optical and dual polarizations, check that residuals do not flip with frequency or scale as λ² or 1/ν; such behavior is classified as plasma/chain.
• Same-source multi-path consistency: For one frequency reference (ground H-maser upconversion, onboard coherent turnaround, or common optical comb) sent via different paths (two-way Earth–space, one-way with onboard reference, inter-spacecraft links, Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) to quasars, and pulsar timing through conjunction), normalize by geometry/environment and test curve overlap and ordering consistency.
• Environment linkage: Qualitatively assess correlation or lack thereof with coronal proxies (electron column density, current-sheet crossings), heliographic magnetic latitude, and solar-cycle phase to separate plasma-driven positives from path-term candidates.

III. How to Do It

1. Channels and samples:
   • Spacecraft tracking: two-way coherent X/Ka links Earth–space; one-way onboard-reference links (Ultra-Stable Oscillator or optical comb); inter-spacecraft laser/microwave links.
   • Optical baselines: lunar laser ranging / planetary laser echoes or inter-spacecraft optical links as plasma-free references.
   • Astrophysical sources: VLBI of small-elongation quasars and pulsar timing through conjunction.
   • Latitude coverage: select high/low heliolatitude orbiters and ascending-node geometries to span solar-latitude strata.
2. Referencing and calibration:
   • Use dual-frequency / dual-polarization in parallel; model ionosphere/troposphere with co-view differencing plus met and ionosphere maps.
   • Plasma separation: exploit X–Ka differential dispersion and optical-link comparisons; require Faraday–group-delay consistency as a plasma veto.
   • Multi-station/link closures: apply co-view/cross-view clock closures, triangle and round-trip closures, and turnaround sanity checks to remove station clock / LO / transponder nonlinearity.
3. Forward prediction, blinding, arbitration:
   • Environment team (forward): with geometry (b/R☉, elongation, heliographic latitude) and activity proxies only, forecast direction and strength tiers for each channel during ingress–perihelium–egress, plus monotonic profiles and symmetry/asymmetry expectations; issue sealed prediction cards.
   • Measurement teams (independent pipelines): produce residual sequences, perform non-dispersion and multi-path consistency checks, and share only target IDs, geometry, and quality flags.
   • Arbitration: align prediction cards with measurement summaries by pre-registered rules; compute hit / wrong / null rates stratified by channel / geometry / epoch / institution.
4. Sequence construction and normalization:
   • Sample ±N days around conjunction at fixed cadence, partitioned into ingress / perihelium / egress.
   • Plot residuals versus b/R☉ or elongation; normalize by clock/path/noise floors to produce a dimensionless common-term curve and compare cross-channel overlap.
5. Controls and artifact removal:
   • Geometric rotation controls: repeat the workflow along the anti-Sun extension or at large elongations.
   • Label-swap/subset-swap: shuffle environment and channel labels; hit rates should fall to chance.
   • Event exclusions: blacklist days with Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)/flares and strong ionospheric disturbances, and report sensitivity.

IV. Positive/Negative Controls and Decision Points

1. Positive controls:
   • Across multiple channels and institutions, common-term residuals vary monotonically with b/R☉, and the ingress–perihelium–egress ordering matches predictions.
   • Residuals are co-directional and non-dispersive across X/Ka/optical and polarizations; when plasma proxies change, the differential-dispersion tracks them while the common term stays.
   • After geometry/environment normalization, same-source multi-path curves overlap.
2. Negative controls:
   • Significant “hits” survive rotations or label shuffles, indicating method/selection bias.
   • Residuals flip/scale with frequency or follow Faraday/group-delay laws, indicating plasma/chain origins.
   • Signals are confined to one channel/pipeline/institution, or correlate with station clocks or thermal drifts, indicating pipeline/clock origins.

V. Systematics and Safeguards (Three Items)

• Time-variable corona and CMEs: can leak into the common term. Safeguard: combine X/Ka differential with optical references, exclude event days, and gate on Faraday–group-delay consistency.
• Ephemeris/dynamics and network errors: inject geometric residuals. Safeguard: co-view closures, closure differences, cross-solver reprocessing, and stratified ephemeris dependence reporting.
• Clocks and transponder nonlinearity: create common-mode drifts. Safeguard: multi-clock comparisons, two-way vs one-way differencing, link swaps, and down-weight nonlinear subsets.

VI. Execution and Transparency

Pre-register geometry/environment variables, residual definitions, non-dispersion and consistency criteria, controls/exclusions, and arbitration rules. Maintain hold-out epochs/targets per channel/geometry bin. Enable cross-team, cross-facility replication among deep-space tracking, optical ranging, VLBI, and pulsar timing groups by exchanging raw data and scripts. Publicly release prediction cards, text intervals and orderings for residuals in each annulus, non-dispersion and curve-overlap summaries, environment and exclusion logs, and key intermediates. This chapter closes a loop with Chapters 3 (same-source multi-line rigid shift), 14 (Cold-Spot path-redshift corroboration), and 27 (path-redshift tomography).

VII. Pass/Fail Criteria

1. Support (passes):
   • In two or more channel classes and two or more institutions, common-term residuals vary monotonically with b/R☉ and heliographic latitude, and ingress–perihelium–egress orderings match forward predictions.
   • Residuals are band- and polarization-independent, overlap across same-source multi-paths, and show weak sensitivity to plasma proxies.
   • Signals remain after rotation/label-swap and event exclusions; dispersive/Faraday components are independently explained without affecting the common-term conclusion.
2. Refutation (fails):
   • Hit rates are near chance, or residuals show frequency flips/scalings.
   • Signals rely on a single channel/institution/special day, or correlate with plasma/clock proxies.
   • Cross-path/epoch overlap fails, and monotonic relations vanish after geometric/environment stratification.