Home / Appendix-Prediction and Falsification
This chapter follows the publication template for the falsification program. It uses plain language, avoids equations, and preserves the fixed structure. For general readers: we reconstruct a four-dimensional tomographic cube—sky pixels × redshift slices × environment strata × common-term indicator—under unified frequency/time standards and source-end calibration. After removing source-side velocities and gravitational redshift, instrument/calibration drift, Galactic/ionospheric/Faraday effects, and foreground/selection biases, we test whether a frequency-independent common term (the “path redshift” residual) is (i) non-dispersive across lines and bands, (ii) monotonic with environment (void → filament → node; external convergence/shear; weak-lensing κ), and (iii) reproducible across probes, teams, and facilities with environment-forward blind hits. Otherwise—if residuals trace instruments, line-ensemble biases, resolution mixing, or dispersive media—the claim is disfavored.
I. One-Sentence Goal
Build and test a 4D tomography of path-redshift residuals that is band-insensitive, environment-monotonic, and cross-probe replicable, using unified standards and blinded predictions based only on environment templates.
II. What to Measure
- Common-term indicator (text grades):
In each sky-pixel × redshift-slice, assign the path-redshift residual a direction (uplift/depression) and strength (strong/medium/weak). Require same-sign behavior across adjacent sub-bands and multiple spectral lines. - Non-dispersion consistency:
Across same-source multi-lines (narrow forbidden lines, molecular/atomic transitions, 21 cm, radio pulses) and multiple bands (radio/millimeter/optical/NIR), compare direction and strength ranking. Any λ² / 1/ν flip or Faraday-law rescaling indicates propagation/chain dispersion. - Environment monotonicity:
Grade linkage to the void–filament–node skeleton, external convergence κ_ext / external shear γ_ext / weak-lensing κ_weak, galaxy density, and distance to nodes as enhanced / plateau / uncorrelated. Test for void → filament/node and increasing κ/γ/κ_weak monotonic strengthening. - Angular scale and correlation length:
After smoothing at 10–30–100 Mpc, record angular correlation length and anisotropy (e.g., large-scale sign flips or hemispheric contrasts) and compare to the morphology of environment templates. - Redshift layering and tomographic continuity:
Using thin and thick slices, evaluate same-sign continuity and stable strength ordering along the redshift axis. Signals confined to only thick slices flag radial mixing risk. - Multi-probe closure:
Check direction/strength consistency with strong-lens time-delay/flux-ratio statistics, Fast Radio Burst (FRB) post-de-dispersion arrival-time residuals, 21 cm intensity-mapping common term, same-source multi-line rigid-shift (ratio-invariant), and rotation-curve—weak-lensing joint fits.
III. How to Do It
- Data domains and sample families:
- Spectroscopic/imaging surveys: choose large-area spectroscopic redshifts overlapping deep imaging to ensure wide area × depth.
- Radio/millimeter/21 cm/pulse samples: include cleaned FRB/pulsar sequences and 21 cm residual products.
- Environment templates: reconstruct the void–filament–node network from 3D galaxy maps and weak-lensing κ, producing κ/γ/κ_weak projections.
- Pixelization and tomography:
- Sky pixels: build an equal-area pixel grid for pixel × slice indexing.
- Redshift slicing: set thin/thick slices from spectroscopic z and high-quality photometric z.
- Environment stratification: assign each pixel–slice an environment grade and distance-to-node/voidness.
- Unified calibration and de-systematics:
- Frequency/time standards: anchor optical/radio frequency/time to a single external standard across facilities; publish stability logs.
- Source-side removal: use same-source multi-line ratio-invariance and narrow-line/stellar anchors to subtract intrinsic velocity/gravitational terms.
- Medium/foreground: remove Galactic foregrounds, Faraday/ionosphere, and atmosphere/bandpass effects; apply de-RM and polarization-leakage corrections for radio.
- Masks and coupling: adopt a unified sky mask and run mask rotation/substitution to bound template–mask coupling.
- Common-term construction and normalization:
- Aggregate multi-line/multi-band path-redshift residuals per pixel–slice and text-grade them.
- Normalize by noise floors, window functions, and instrument stability to form a dimensionless common-term indicator, yielding the 4D tomographic cube.
- Forward prediction, blinding, arbitration:
- Environment team (forward): using only environment templates and masks, issue prediction cards per pixel–slice with expected direction/strength/scale and monotonicity.
- Measurement teams (independent pipelines): using ≥2 cleaning paths and two pixel/slice schemes, produce the common-term cube and non-dispersion/monotonicity verdicts without access to predictions.
- Arbitration: align prediction cards and results; compute hit / wrong / null rates across sky/redshift/environment/method strata.
- Cross-consistency:
- Cross-correlate with weak-lensing κ, galaxy density, and Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) lensing κ; report any band-dependent sign flips.
- Verify directional agreement against saddle-image ablation/flux-ratio smooth-field statistics, 21 cm common-term–environment correlations, and absolute cross-environment speed-of-light comparisons.
IV. Positive/Negative Controls and Removal of Artifacts
- Positive controls (supporting a path-redshift common term):
- Indicators align in sign across adjacent sub-bands / multiple lines and multiple facilities, and strengthen monotonically with void → filament/node and κ/γ/κ_weak.
- Non-dispersion holds: no λ² / 1/ν / Faraday flips or rescalings.
- 4D continuity: structures are morphologically continuous across sky and redshift and follow the environment skeleton’s shape and orientation.
- Forward-prediction hit rates exceed chance and the direction/strength ordering matches strong-lens/FRB/21 cm probes.
- Negative controls (against a path-redshift common term):
- Residuals co-vary with instrument zeros/bandpass/thermal drift or Galactic/Faraday templates, or follow dispersive laws.
- Significance is confined to one survey/pipeline/field, or is highly mask/slice-thickness sensitive.
- Template rotation/label shuffles/redshift scrambling still give “detections,” indicating method/selection bias.
V. Systematics and Safeguards (Three Items)
- Frequency-zero and survey-stitch drifts: forge large-scale residuals. Safeguard: overlap-region closures and laboratory line anchors; publish zero-point stability/stitch curves; recompute with dual pipelines and held-out line sets.
- Environment-template × mask coupling: skeleton edges create spurious correlations. Safeguard: mask rotation/randomization and pixel re-sampling; report template–mask interaction bounds; down-weight edge pixels.
- Redshift uncertainty and radial mixing: photo-z tails and thin slices distort layering. Safeguard: build a redshift-error kernel, compare thin/thick slices with deconvolved/raw conventions, and separately report high-error subsets.
VI. Execution and Transparency
Pre-register pixel resolution and slice thickness, line/band lists, unified calibration/de-systematics workflows, text-grade rules for the common term, and criteria for non-dispersion / environment monotonicity / 4D continuity, plus all controls/exclusions and arbitration scoring. Reserve held-out pixels/line groups per redshift/environment/sky block for final confirmation. Enable cross-team/facility replication by exchanging raw photometry/spectra/visibilities and scripts, and run down-sampling/noise/mask-variant/template-rotation robustness tests. Publicly release prediction cards, the 4D common-term cube (text-graded), non-dispersion and environment-monotonicity summaries, and calibration/mask/redshift-error logs, with key intermediates. This chapter closes the loop with Chapters 1 (cross-probe non-dispersive common term), 9/21 (strong-lens statistics), 23 (21 cm common term—environment correlation), and 24 (absolute cross-environment light-speed comparison).
VII. Pass/Fail Criteria
- Support (passes):
- In two or more pipelines and two or more facility/survey classes, a cross-line/cross-band non-dispersive 4D common-term field strengthens monotonically with void → filament/node and κ/γ/κ_weak.
- Directions agree with strong-lens/FRB/21 cm probes; forward-prediction hits exceed chance.
- Results are robust to pixel/slice/mask/calibration choices and to template rotation/label shuffles.
- Refutation (fails):
- Residuals are dispersive or strongly tied to instrument/foreground templates, and fail cross-facility/team replication.
- No environment monotonicity or poor 4D continuity; arbitration hit rates near chance.
- High sensitivity to slice thickness/mask or disappearance in held-out samples.
Copyright & License (CC BY 4.0)
Copyright: Unless otherwise noted, the copyright of “Energy Filament Theory” (text, charts, illustrations, symbols, and formulas) belongs to the author “Guanglin Tu”.
License: This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). You may copy, redistribute, excerpt, adapt, and share for commercial or non‑commercial purposes with proper attribution.
Suggested attribution: Author: “Guanglin Tu”; Work: “Energy Filament Theory”; Source: energyfilament.org; License: CC BY 4.0.
First published: 2025-11-11|Current version:v5.1
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