49 Slow-Leak Spectra of Cometary Plasmas and Solar-Wind Environment Stripping

Home ／ Appendix-Prediction and Falsification

This chapter follows the publication template for the falsification program. It uses plain language, avoids equations, and preserves the fixed structure. With unified time/frequency standards and source-end calibration, we analyze cometary plasma tails across velocity–density–temperature–electromagnetic (E/B) time series and spectra to define a reproducible slow-leak spectrum: a low-velocity plateau or gently leaking constant/slow-slope term that is nearly non-dispersive. We then isolate the role of the solar-wind environment—background wind, corotating interaction regions (CIR), interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME), interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) direction, plasma beta (β), and turbulence strength—testing for monotonic/plateau/threshold relations. If signals are explained by geometry, neutral/dust mixing, or bandpass/deconvolution artifacts—or fail to replicate across bands/arrays/missions—the claim is disfavored.

I. One-Sentence Goal

Show that cometary plasmas exhibit a non-dispersive slow-leak platform whose strength follows solar-wind conditions and replicates across observation modes, rather than arising from geometry or instrumental artifacts.

II. What to Measure

• Slow-leak index (text grades):
  With common beam/bandpass/detrending, extract constants/slopes from ion/electron density, bulk speed (V), temperature (T) and anisotropy (T_\perp/T_\parallel), and E/B time series and power spectra. Grade strong / medium / weak; uplift / depression; stable / unstable on a grid of comet (orbital phase × perihelion distance) × segment (anti-tail/ion tail/near-neutral tail) × band/channel × array/mission.
• Cross-band non-dispersion:
  Compare slow-leak constants across radio scintillation (IPS), white-light polarization, emission lines (e.g., CO⁺/H₂O⁺, [O I] 6300 Å), and in-situ plasma energy channels. λ or 1/ν flips/scalings indicate dispersion/deconvolution residue.
• Zero-lag co-occurrence (aligned):
  Using a single external timescale, align ground–space datasets and grade zero-lag peaks and side-lobe contrast among V–n–E/B. Same-geometry windows (tail-axis angle/phase) with same-direction platforms support the claim.
• Environment profiles (solar-wind stripping):
  Co-register the slow-leak index with solar-wind speed (V_{\rm sw}), IMF direction/strength, β, turbulence (\delta B/B), CIR/ICME flags, and geomagnetic Kp/Dst. Produce monotonic/plateau/threshold profiles and score forward-prediction hits using environment only.
• Geometry/chemistry orthogonality:
  In phase angle, line-of-sight elevation, tail-axis offset, solar altitude and neutral/dust fractions (Na D, dust polarization, CN-band strength), test near-orthogonality; downgrade if geometry or chemistry alone reproduces the effect.
• Ratio robustness and rigid shift:
  Require channel–channel amplitude ratios, ion–electron temperature ratios, spectral-band intensity ratios to remain stable while absolute slow-leak constants show rigid shifts/slow platforms.
• Reproducibility across epochs and comets:
  For repeat apparitions of the same comet and different comets at similar solar-wind levels, verify sign/order stability; in quiet references (off-axis/steady wind), the platform should weaken or vanish.

III. How to Do It

1. Data and arrays:
   Ground optical (narrow-band imaging/IFU spectroscopy of ion/forbidden lines; white-light polarization); radio IPS/low-frequency phase scintillation; space in-situ/remote (ACE/DSCOVR/Solar Orbiter/Parker Solar Probe; archival near-comet missions like Rosetta; coronagraph white-light/EUV); IMF and geomagnetic indices.
2. Unified calibration and de-systematics:
   Publish timestamp queues/bandpass kernels/PSFs; map to a common bandpass with edge hold-outs. Regress sky background/airglow/star-field convolution; remove instrumental scattering in white-light polarization. Perform chemical unmixing (line vs continuum/polarization) to separate neutral/dust/ion components with marginalization. Invert (V_{\rm sw})/IMF/β/δB at the comet via L1/L5 + heliospheric models, marking ICME/CIR windows.
3. Processing and stacking (dual pipelines):
   • Pipeline A (time domain): detrend/high-pass → slow-platform detection → zero-lag index.
   • Pipeline B (frequency/energy domain): power spectra/energy-bin regressions → non-dispersive residuals → fit environment profiles.
     Publish text-grade strength tables and non-dispersion/co-occurrence labels for event × band × array × window.
4. Stratification and forward prediction:
   Bin by (V_{\rm sw})/IMF/β/δB/Kp and geometry/chemistry, identify plateau/monotonic/threshold patterns. The forward team uses only environment to issue direction/magnitude/threshold prediction cards; the measurement team processes blind; the arbitration team scores hit / wrong / null on held-out comets/windows.

IV. Positive/Negative Controls and Artifact Removal

1. Positive controls:
   • Ground–space–radio sources show same-window, same-direction, near-equal-amplitude slow-leak platforms with zero-lag co-occurrence.
   • Non-dispersion: constants are insensitive to λ/band edge/energy bin.
   • Slow-leak strength follows (V_{\rm sw})/IMF/β/δB/Kp with monotonic/plateau/threshold behavior; prediction cards beat chance.
   • Robust to geometry/chemistry choices and transferable across comets and apparitions.
2. Negative controls:
   • Residuals scale with λ/1/ν or energy bin, or correlate with dust/neutral templates.
   • Detection confined to one band/array/mission or fragile to PSF/bandpass/unmixing settings.
   • Label swaps/time reversals/template swaps still “detect” platforms—method bias.
   • Strict chemical unmixing/band-edge holds/scatter regression removes the signal, or geometry/convolution artifacts reproduce it.

V. Systematics and Safeguards (Three Items)

• Geometry/convolution artifacts: tail-axis projection with PSF/deconvolution coupling. Safeguard: common-PSF convolution, kernel-variant hold-outs, and inject–recover tests.
• Chemical cross-talk: neutral/dust contamination of ion-tail slow-leak. Safeguard: multi-line vs continuum orthogonal unmixing, polarization constraints, and template marginalization.
• Environment inversion gaps: biases in L1/L5–model projections. Safeguard: multi-source assimilation with CIR/ICME alignment, activity-threshold hold-outs, and uncertainty propagation.

VI. Execution and Transparency

Pre-register comet and phase lists, bands/arrays, common bandpass/PSF, chemical unmixing/environment inversion rules, criteria for non-dispersion/zero-lag/profile shapes, positive/negative controls, exclusions, and arbitration. Define held-out units (ICME vs quiet, near-axis vs lateral, low vs high β). Enable cross-team replication by sharing raw imaging/spectra/IPS/in-situ series, timestamp/link logs, unmixing/inversion parameters, scripts; run down-sampling/noise/kernel-variant/alignment-perturbation/template scans. Release prediction cards, slow-leak index tables, zero-lag/non-dispersion summaries, PSF/bandpass/chemistry/environment logs, and key intermediates.

VII. Pass/Fail Criteria

1. Support (passes):
   • In ≥ 2 pipelines, ≥ 2 array/mission classes, ≥ 3 channels, across multiple comets and apparitions, recover a non-dispersive, zero-lag slow-leak platform.
   • Slow-leak strength follows forward-predictable plateau/monotonic/threshold relations with solar-wind layers and is robust to PSF/bandpass/unmixing/inversion choices.
   • Arbitration beats chance and replicates in held-out units.
2. Refutation (fails):
   • Results are dominated by dispersion/chemistry/geometry or fail to replicate across channels/arrays/missions/comets/apparitions.
   • High parameter fragility or disappearance/inversion in held-outs.
   • Arbitration near chance, indistinguishable from method/system artifacts.