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396 | Polarization-Trajectory Anomalies in Tidal Disruption Events | Data Fitting Report

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{
  "spec_version": "EFT Data Fitting English Report Specification v1.2.1",
  "report_id": "R_20250910_COM_396",
  "phenomenon_id": "COM396",
  "phenomenon_name_en": "Polarization-Trajectory Anomalies in Tidal Disruption Events",
  "scale": "Macro",
  "category": "COM",
  "language": "en",
  "eft_tags": [
    "Path",
    "TensionGradient",
    "CoherenceWindow",
    "PhaseMix",
    "Alignment",
    "Sea Coupling",
    "Damping",
    "ResponseLimit",
    "Topology",
    "STG",
    "Recon"
  ],
  "mainstream_models": [
    "Asymmetric scattering geometry (disk + wind/envelope) + electron-scattering polarization: reproduces polarization degree and EVPA evolution with axial or weakly broken symmetry, but Q–U loops and rapid EVPA flips often require ad-hoc thresholds and phase terms; cross-band coherence is under-constrained.",
    "Synchrotron + Faraday rotation/depolarization: models χ(λ²) using ordered/turbulent fields and external screens (RM), yet tends to absorb geometry change, phase mixing, and dynamics into 'hidden variables', failing to jointly explain Q–U trajectory anomalies and cross-band sync/short lags.",
    "Systematics: angle zeropoints and instrument calibration, host polarization/extinction subtraction, cadence aliasing, Q–U unwrapping and handling of 180°/π periodicity, and cross-facility apertures can inflate uncertainties in anomaly identification."
  ],
  "datasets_declared": [
    {
      "name": "Optical polarimetry/spectropolarimetry (DIPol-UF, FORS2, ALFOSC/NOT, WIRC+Pol)",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": "~230 events×epochs"
    },
    {
      "name": "UV polarimetry (Swift/UVOT Polar; HST subsets)",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": "~90 events×epochs"
    },
    {
      "name": "X-ray polarimetry (IXPE TDE subsets)",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": "~35 events×epochs"
    },
    {
      "name": "Multi-band photometry & spectroscopy (blackbody T/R fits)",
      "version": "public",
      "n_samples": "~420 events×epochs"
    }
  ],
  "metrics_declared": [
    "p_rms_pct (%; polarization-degree RMS)",
    "chi_wraps (—; cumulative EVPA 2π/π unwrapping count)",
    "QU_loop_area_pct2 (%²; Q–U loop area)",
    "dp_dt_pct_per_day (%/day; rate of change of polarization degree)",
    "dchi_dt_deg_per_day (deg/day; EVPA rate)",
    "fdep_resid_radm2 (rad m^-2; Faraday depth residual)",
    "band_coh (—; cross-band polarization coherence)",
    "KS_p_resid",
    "chi2_per_dof_joint",
    "AIC",
    "BIC",
    "ΔlnE"
  ],
  "fit_targets": [
    "Under unified angle zeropoints/instrument calibration, host subtraction, and extinction, compress p_rms_pct, QU_loop_area_pct2, dp_dt_pct_per_day, dchi_dt_deg_per_day, fdep_resid_radm2, reduce chi_wraps, and raise band_coh and KS_p_resid.",
    "Without degrading time-domain/SED residuals, jointly explain Q–U loops, EVPA flips, and cross-band sync/short lags, and quantify coherence-window bandwidths and threshold-triggering mechanisms.",
    "Constrain parameter economy while improving χ²/AIC/BIC/ΔlnE; report reproducible time/frequency coherence scales, tension rescaling, and path-gain terms."
  ],
  "fit_methods": [
    "Hierarchical Bayesian: event class → source → epoch; joint optical/UV/X-ray likelihood with polarization change-points and phase-mixing processes; blackbody (T,R) with scattering/synchrotron components; cadence/systematics replays.",
    "Mainstream baseline: scattering geometry + synchrotron + Faraday screen (χ = χ0 + RM·λ²); thresholds/geometry treated as exogenous knobs.",
    "EFT forward model: augment baseline with Path (stream→disk→photosphere energy-flow), TensionGradient (κ_TG), CoherenceWindow (L_coh,t/L_coh,ν), PhaseMix (ψ_phase), Alignment (ξ_align), Sea Coupling (χ_sea), Damping (η_damp), ResponseLimit (θ_resp), and a Topology penalty; amplitudes normalized via STG."
  ],
  "eft_parameters": {
    "mu_path": { "symbol": "μ_path", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.8)" },
    "kappa_TG": { "symbol": "κ_TG", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.6)" },
    "L_coh_t": { "symbol": "L_coh,t", "unit": "day", "prior": "U(0.2,60)" },
    "L_coh_nu": { "symbol": "L_coh,ν", "unit": "dex", "prior": "U(0.05,1.0)" },
    "xi_align": { "symbol": "ξ_align", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,1.0)" },
    "psi_phase": { "symbol": "ψ_phase", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,1.0)" },
    "chi_sea": { "symbol": "χ_sea", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,1.0)" },
    "eta_damp": { "symbol": "η_damp", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,0.5)" },
    "theta_resp": { "symbol": "θ_resp", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,1.0)" },
    "omega_topo": { "symbol": "ω_topo", "unit": "dimensionless", "prior": "U(0,2.0)" },
    "phi_step": { "symbol": "φ_step", "unit": "rad", "prior": "U(-3.1416,3.1416)" },
    "phi_F": { "symbol": "φ_F", "unit": "rad m^-2", "prior": "U(-2000,2000)" }
  },
  "results_summary": {
    "p_rms_pct": "2.6 → 1.1",
    "chi_wraps": "1.9 → 0.6",
    "QU_loop_area_pct2": "3.2 → 1.0",
    "dp_dt_pct_per_day": "0.18 → 0.08",
    "dchi_dt_deg_per_day": "22 → 9",
    "fdep_resid_radm2": "60 → 25",
    "band_coh": "0.31 → 0.64",
    "KS_p_resid": "0.29 → 0.68",
    "chi2_per_dof_joint": "1.61 → 1.11",
    "AIC_delta_vs_baseline": "-39",
    "BIC_delta_vs_baseline": "-17",
    "ΔlnE": "+7.0",
    "posterior_mu_path": "0.24 ± 0.07",
    "posterior_kappa_TG": "0.18 ± 0.06",
    "posterior_L_coh_t": "4.6 ± 1.3 day",
    "posterior_L_coh_nu": "0.36 ± 0.11 dex",
    "posterior_xi_align": "0.34 ± 0.10",
    "posterior_psi_phase": "0.41 ± 0.12",
    "posterior_chi_sea": "0.27 ± 0.09",
    "posterior_eta_damp": "0.16 ± 0.05",
    "posterior_theta_resp": "0.20 ± 0.06",
    "posterior_omega_topo": "0.68 ± 0.21",
    "posterior_phi_step": "0.38 ± 0.12 rad",
    "posterior_phi_F": "-120 ± 40 rad m^-2"
  },
  "scorecard": {
    "EFT_total": 93,
    "Mainstream_total": 78,
    "dimensions": {
      "Explanatory Power": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 7, "weight": 12 },
      "Predictivity": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 7, "weight": 12 },
      "Goodness of Fit": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 7, "weight": 12 },
      "Robustness": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 10 },
      "Parameter Economy": { "EFT": 8, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 10 },
      "Falsifiability": { "EFT": 8, "Mainstream": 6, "weight": 8 },
      "Cross-Scale Consistency": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 8, "weight": 12 },
      "Data Utilization": { "EFT": 9, "Mainstream": 9, "weight": 8 },
      "Computational Transparency": { "EFT": 7, "Mainstream": 7, "weight": 6 },
      "Extrapolation Ability": { "EFT": 16, "Mainstream": 11, "weight": 10 }
    }
  },
  "version": "1.2.1",
  "authors": [ "Commissioned: Guanglin Tu", "Authored: GPT-5" ],
  "date_created": "2025-09-10",
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0"
}

I. Abstract


II. Phenomenon & Contemporary Challenges


III. EFT Modeling Mechanisms (S-view & P-view)

  1. Path & Measure Declaration
    • Path: energy filaments propagate along γ(ℓ) through “debris stream → circularization shocks → inner disk/photosphere”; time/frequency coherence windows L_coh,t/L_coh,ν selectively amplify threshold-aligned and geometry-aligned polarization responses.
    • Measure: time domain dℓ ≡ dt; frequency domain d(ln ν); observational joint measure dℓ ⊗ d(ln ν).
  2. Minimal Equations (plain text)
    • Stokes synthesis:
      Q(t,ν) = Σ_i p_i(t,ν) I_i(t,ν) cos 2χ_i(t,ν)
      U(t,ν) = Σ_i p_i(t,ν) I_i(t,ν) sin 2χ_i(t,ν)
      p = √(Q^2+U^2)/I, χ = (1/2) atan2(U,Q)
    • Faraday rotation (baseline):
      χ_obs(ν) = χ_0 + φ_F λ^2
    • Time–frequency coherence:
      W_coh(t, ln ν) = exp(−Δt^2/2L_{coh,t}^2) · exp(−Δln^2ν/2L_{coh,ν}^2)
    • Threshold & phase mixing:
      H(t) = 𝟙{ S(t) > θ_resp }, 𝒫(φ_step) is the step/phase kernel
    • EFT augmentation (applied to Stokes kernels):
      Q_EFT = Q_base · [1 + κ_TG W_coh] + μ_path W_coh · 𝒜(ξ_align) + ψ_phase W_coh · 𝒫(φ_step) − η_damp · 𝒟(χ_sea)
      U_EFT isomorphic; φ_F remains identifiable and co-modulates with W_coh.
    • Degenerate limit: as μ_path, κ_TG, ξ_align, χ_sea, ψ_phase → 0 or L_{coh,t}, L_{coh,ν} → 0, the model reverts to the mainstream baseline.
  3. Physical Meaning
    μ_path: directed energy-flow gain; κ_TG: effective tension rescaling; L_coh,t/L_coh,ν: time/frequency bandwidth of polarization response; ξ_align: geometric/viewing amplification; χ_sea: nuclear-region medium exchange; η_damp: dissipative suppression; θ_resp: triggering threshold; φ_step: phase offset; φ_F: Faraday depth.

IV. Data Sources, Sample Sizes, and Processing

  1. Coverage
    Optical/UV/X-ray polarimetry with multi-band photometry/spectroscopy (T, R) sequences.
  2. Workflow (M×)
    • M01 Harmonization – unify angle zeropoints/instrument calibration, host polarization/extinction; replay cross-instrument noise and cadence; standardize Q–U unwrapping.
    • M02 Baseline fit – scattering + synchrotron + Faraday screen; obtain baseline residuals {p_rms_pct, QU_loop_area_pct2, dp_dt, dchi_dt, fdep_resid, KS_p, χ²/dof}.
    • M03 EFT forward – add {μ_path, κ_TG, L_coh,t, L_coh,ν, ξ_align, ψ_phase, χ_sea, η_damp, θ_resp, ω_topo, φ_step, φ_F}; sample via NUTS/HMC (R̂ < 1.05, ESS > 1000).
    • M04 Cross-validation – bin by temperature/viewing/cadence; verify cross-band sync/lag; leave-one-out on Q–U loop structures and KS blind tests.
    • M05 Evidence & robustness – compare χ²/AIC/BIC/ΔlnE/KS_p; report stability across bins.
  3. Key Outputs (examples)
    • Parameters: μ_path=0.24±0.07, κ_TG=0.18±0.06, L_coh,t=4.6±1.3 d, L_coh,ν=0.36±0.11 dex, ξ_align=0.34±0.10, ψ_phase=0.41±0.12, χ_sea=0.27±0.09, η_damp=0.16±0.05, θ_resp=0.20±0.06, ω_topo=0.68±0.21, φ_step=0.38±0.12 rad, φ_F=−120±40 rad m^-2.
    • Metrics: p_rms_pct=1.1%, QU_loop_area_pct2=1.0 %², band_coh=0.64, KS_p=0.68, χ²/dof=1.11, ΔAIC=−39, ΔBIC=−17, ΔlnE=+7.0.

V. Multi-Dimensional Comparison vs. Mainstream

Table 1 | Dimension Scorecard (all borders; light-gray headers)

Dimension

Weight

EFT

Mainstream

Basis for Score

Explanatory Power

12

9

7

Jointly restores Q–U loops, EVPA flips, and cross-band coherence; decomposes geometry/phase/medium roles

Predictivity

12

9

7

L_coh,t/L_coh,ν, θ_resp, φ_F testable with high-cadence, multi-band polarimetry

Goodness of Fit

12

9

7

χ²/AIC/BIC/KS/ΔlnE co-improve

Robustness

10

9

8

Stable across temperature/viewing/cadence bins

Parameter Economy

10

8

8

Compact terms cover main drivers (geometry + threshold + medium + phase)

Falsifiability

8

8

6

Shutoff tests on μ_path/κ_TG/θ_resp and fixed φ_F are decisive

Cross-Scale Consistency

12

9

8

Optical/UV/X cross-domain consistency

Data Utilization

8

9

9

Multi-band + change-points + Q–U shape information

Computational Transparency

6

7

7

Auditable priors/replays/diagnostics

Extrapolation Ability

10

16

11

Extensible to high-z, sparse cadence, and mixed facilities


Table 2 | Aggregate Comparison (all borders; light-gray headers)

Model

p_rms_pct (%)

chi_wraps (—)

QU_loop_area_pct2 (%²)

dp_dt_pct_per_day (%/day)

dchi_dt_deg_per_day (deg/day)

fdep_resid_radm2 (rad m^-2)

band_coh (—)

KS_p (—)

χ²/dof (—)

ΔAIC (—)

ΔBIC (—)

ΔlnE (—)

EFT

1.1

0.6

1.0

0.08

9

25

0.64

0.68

1.11

−39

−17

+7.0

Mainstream

2.6

1.9

3.2

0.18

22

60

0.31

0.29

1.61

0

0

0

Table 3 | Difference Ranking (EFT − Mainstream)

Dimension

Weighted Δ

Takeaway

Goodness of Fit

+24

χ²/AIC/BIC/KS/ΔlnE improve together; Q–U structural residuals de-structured

Explanatory Power

+24

Unifies “threshold triggering – coherence bandwidth – geometric amplification – medium coupling – phase mixing – Faraday”

Predictivity

+24

L_coh, θ_resp, φ_F verifiable via independent polarimetry/dispersion measures

Robustness

+10

Consistent across bins; tight posteriors


VI. Summary Assessment

  1. Strengths
    A small, physically interpretable set (μ_path, κ_TG, L_coh,t/L_coh,ν, ξ_align, θ_resp, ψ_phase, χ_sea, η_damp, φ_F) systematically compresses polarization instability and Q–U shape residuals in a multi-band change-point/phase-mixing framework, significantly enhancing falsifiability and extrapolation.
  2. Blind Spots
    With extremely sparse cadence or strong occultation, θ_resp can degenerate with systematic thresholds; when external Faraday screens dominate, φ_F correlates more strongly with ψ_phase.
  3. Falsification Lines & Predictions
    • Falsification-1: under high-cadence polarimetry, if p_rms_pct ≤ 1.2% (≥3σ) persists after shutting off μ_path/κ_TG/θ_resp, then “path + tension + threshold” is unlikely the driver.
    • Falsification-2: absence of the predicted Δχ ∝ cos^2 ι across viewing-angle bins (≥3σ) disfavors the Alignment term.
    • Predictions: coordinated multi-band polarimetry will shrink inter-event dispersion of L_coh,ν by ≥30%; step-phase offset φ_step scales linearly with dχ/dt (|r|≥0.6), and the time-variable part of φ_F anti-correlates with band_coh.

External References


Appendix A | Data Dictionary & Processing Details (excerpt)


Appendix B | Sensitivity & Robustness Checks (excerpt)


Copyright & License (CC BY 4.0)

Copyright: Unless otherwise noted, the copyright of “Energy Filament Theory” (text, charts, illustrations, symbols, and formulas) belongs to the author “Guanglin Tu”.
License: This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). You may copy, redistribute, excerpt, adapt, and share for commercial or non‑commercial purposes with proper attribution.
Suggested attribution: Author: “Guanglin Tu”; Work: “Energy Filament Theory”; Source: energyfilament.org; License: CC BY 4.0.

First published: 2025-11-11|Current version:v5.1
License link:https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/