56-Report-Level Methods Appendix Template v1.0 | Chapter 13 Risks, Boundaries & Rollback Entry

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Chapter 13 Risks, Boundaries & Rollback Entry

I. Chapter Goals & Scope (Mandatory)

• Define unified rules for risk grading—triggers—rollback paths—boundaries & non-goals so a method entry is fast to decide, auditable, and restorable under abnormal conditions.
• Aligned with Ch.8 (Evaluation & Metrics), Ch.9 (Uncertainty & Tests), Ch.10 (Ablation & Sensitivity), Ch.11 (Implementation Binding), and Ch.12 (Reproducibility & Artifact Export).

II. Risk Grading (L1–L4, Mandatory)

• L1 Minor: local metric fluctuation; self-heals in short window; no impact on gate decisions.
• L2 Moderate: single subsystem/region affected; SLO near threshold; operator intervention required.
• L3 Severe: multi-subsystem/cross-region impact; hard gates may fail; throttle/degrade or rollback required.
• L4 Critical: safety/compliance or core outage; immediate disable/full rollback and external notice.

III. Triggers & Detection (Mandatory)

1. Unified naming: <trigger> := <metric><comparator><threshold>@<window>.
2. Minimal trigger set:
   • t_accuracy_low := gate_accuracy<0.98@7d
   • t_latency_high := gate_latency>2h@7d
   • t_compat_break := compat_rate<0.99@replay
   • t_incident := incident_level>=2@24h
   • t_drift := data_drift>0.03@14d
3. Policies: instant / consecutive-k / moving_avg; upon firing, enter the disposition decision tree.

IV. Rollback Entry & Decision Tree (Mandatory)

• Grade determination: decide L1–L4 from triggers and impact surface.
• Isolatability: prefer partial rollback if isolatable; else full hot/cold rollback.
• Execution sequence: freeze writes → switch version/feature flags → restore snapshots (params/model/contract) → restoration verification → windowed observation → unfreeze/ramp.
• Postmortem: produce RollbackReport, record restoration gates and re-release conditions.

V. Arrival-Time Caliber & Boundaries (Mandatory)

1. Unified forms:
   • Factored: T_arr = ( 1 / c_ref ) * ( ∫ n_eff d ell )
   • General: T_arr = ( ∫ ( n_eff / c_ref ) d ell )
2. In the same paragraph state path gamma(ell) and measure d ell; check_dim=true. When c_ref fluctuates strongly, use the general form only for gate judgments.
3. Exception clause: if the factored form is used temporarily, record domain, term, and re-check gates in the record.

VI. Restoration Verification & Pass Lines (Mandatory)

1. Restoration hard gates (examples):
   • gate_accuracy>=0.99@24h
   • gate_latency<=2h@24h
   • compat_rate>=0.995@replay
   • gate_error_rate<=1e-3@24h
2. Evidence: data source, statistical method, CI_95%, script locator script@commit, artifact hashes.

VII. Non-Goals & Boundary Items (Mandatory)

• Non-goals: organizational processes, budget approvals, legal interpretations.
• Boundaries: excludes long-term roadmap disputes and inferences beyond data/contract scope; escalate to higher-level volumes.

VIII. Human × Machine Mapping (Mandatory)

IX. Field & Constraint List (copy-ready)

X. Machine Schema (YAML; JSON-equivalent, Mandatory)

risk:

levels:

L1: { impact: "localized", action: "monitor", notify: ["oncall"] }

L2: { impact: "single-subsystem", action: "partial_rollback", notify: ["oncall","owner"] }

L3: { impact: "multi-subsystem/global", action: "full_rollback", notify: ["oncall","owner","release_mgr"] }

L4: { impact: "safety/compliance", action: "emergency_shutdown", notify: ["exec","legal","pr"] }

triggers:

- name: "t_accuracy_low"

rule: "gate_accuracy<0.98@7d"

policy: { mode: "consecutive", k: 2 }

- name: "t_latency_high"

rule: "gate_latency>2h@7d"

policy: { mode: "instant" }

- name: "t_compat_break"

rule: "compat_rate<0.99@replay"

policy: { mode: "instant" }

- name: "t_incident"

rule: "incident_level>=2@24h"

policy: { mode: "moving_avg", window: "24h" }

- name: "t_drift"

rule: "data_drift>0.03@14d"

policy: { mode: "instant" }

rollback_plan:

type: ["hot","partial"]

freeze_io: true

steps:

- "switch_traffic: release-stable"

- "restore_snapshot: schema@v2.2"

- "run_suite: restoration_smoke"

- "run_suite: restoration_regression"

- "observe: 24h"

artifacts:

snapshots: ["params@sha256:…","schema@v2.2","model@a1b2c3"]

scripts: ["restore.py@d4e5f6","smoke.sh@a1b2c3","regress.py@9f8e7d"]

success_gates:

- "gate_accuracy>=0.99@24h"

- "gate_latency<=2h@24h"

- "compat_rate>=0.995@replay"

- "gate_error_rate<=1e-3@24h"

arrival_time:

caliber:

forms:

- { name: "general", expr: "( ∫ ( n_eff / c_ref ) d ell )" }

- { name: "factored", expr: "( 1 / c_ref ) * ( ∫ n_eff d ell )" }

path: "gamma(ell)"

measure: "d ell"

check_dim: true

audit_trail:

record:

- "timestamp"

- "actor"

- "risk_level"

- "trigger"

- "action"

- "evidence_hash"

- "notes"

communication:

internal: ["oncall","owner","auditor","release_mgr"]

external: { policy: "as_needed", channels: ["status_page","mailing_list"] }

XI. Minimal Sample (human abstract × machine snippet, Mandatory)

• Human abstract: t_accuracy_low and t_compat_break detected; graded L3; execute hot rollback + data snapshot restore; restoration gates all pass (gate_accuracy>=0.99@24h, compat_rate>=0.995@replay).
• Machine snippet:

risk: { current_level: "L3", reason: ["t_accuracy_low","t_compat_break"] }

rollback_plan: { type: ["hot","data"], freeze_io: true }

success_gates: ["gate_accuracy>=0.99@24h","compat_rate>=0.995@replay"]

XII. Validation Rules (regex/consistency, Mandatory)

• Trigger expression: ^gate_[a-z0-9_]+(>=|<=|==)[^@\s]+@[^@\s]+$ or equivalent; incident_level, data_drift accepted with the same caliber.
• Rollback steps: rollback_plan.steps[] non-empty and executable; if freeze_io=true, steps must include “restoration verification” and “observation”.
• Arrival-time: if T_arr appears, arrival_time.caliber.path/measure required and math.check_dim=true.
• Audit: audit_trail.record[] fields complete; if external notice occurs, communication.external.* must be present.

XIII. Citation & Cross-Reference Style (Mandatory)